{"id":18006,"date":"2025-08-25T18:04:18","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T09:04:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/biz.moneyforward.com\/work-efficiency\/basic\/?p=18006"},"modified":"2026-03-18T16:03:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T07:03:48","slug":"forecast%e9%96%a2%e6%95%b0%e3%81%ae%e4%bd%bf%e3%81%84%e6%96%b9%ef%bc%9a%e3%82%a8%e3%82%af%e3%82%bb%e3%83%ab%e3%81%a7%e5%a3%b2%e4%b8%8a%e4%ba%88%e6%b8%ac%e3%82%84%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e4%ba%88%e6%b8%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/biz.moneyforward.com\/work-efficiency\/basic\/18006\/","title":{"rendered":"FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\uff1a\u30a8\u30af\u30bb\u30eb\u3067\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c\u3084\u9700\u8981\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3046\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u624b\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001\u65e2\u5b58\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u3092\u884c\u3044\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u5024\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u30a8\u30af\u30bb\u30eb\u306e\u7d71\u8a08\u95a2\u6570\u3067\u3059\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304b\u3089\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u3068\u96fb\u529b\u6d88\u8cbb\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304b\u3089\u6d88\u8cbb\u91cf\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3068\u3001\u30d3\u30b8\u30cd\u30b9\u306e\u69d8\u3005\u306a\u5834\u9762\u3067\u6d3b\u7528\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306a\u4f7f\u3044\u65b9\u304b\u3089\u5b9f\u52d9\u3067\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u4f8b\u3001FORECAST.LINEAR\u95a2\u6570\u3084FORECAST.ETS\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u306e\u9055\u3044\u3001\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a\u65b9\u6cd5\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3088\u304f\u3042\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u843d\u3068\u3057\u7a74\u3068\u305d\u306e\u56de\u907f\u65b9\u6cd5\u307e\u3067\u3001\u521d\u5fc3\u8005\u306b\u3082\u5206\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3092\u652f\u63f4\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u5206\u6790\u306e\u624b\u6cd5\u3092\u30de\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u3057\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<div 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style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u304c\u884c\u3046\u7dda\u5f62\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u306e\u4ed5\u7d44\u307f\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u3088\u308a\u9069\u5207\u306a\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u5e30\u76f4\u7dda\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u5f0f\u3067\u8868\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>y = ax + b<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u3067\u3001a\u306f\u50be\u304d\uff08\u5909\u5316\u7387\uff09\u3001b\u306f\u5207\u7247\uff08x=0\u306e\u3068\u304d\u306ey\u5024\uff09\u3067\u3059\u3002FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u76f4\u7dda\u306e\u5f0f\u3092\u81ea\u52d5\u7684\u306b\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3001\u6307\u5b9a\u3057\u305fx\u5024\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308by\u5024\u3092\u8fd4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306a\u4f7f\u7528\u4f8b<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: 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\u671f\u9593\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf))<\/p>\n<p>\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u524d\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u6bd4\u3067\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3082\u6709\u52b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(13, \u524d\u5e74\u540c\u6708\u58f2\u4e0a12\u304b\u6708, {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12})<\/p>\n<h3>\u5728\u5eab\u7ba1\u7406\u3068\u9700\u8981\u4e88\u6e2c<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u5c0f\u58f2\u696d\u3084\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u3067\u306f\u3001\u9069\u6b63\u5728\u5eab\u306e\u7dad\u6301\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b\u9700\u8981\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6b20\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u65e5\u6b21\u9700\u8981\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb30\u65e5\u306e\u8ca9\u58f2\u6570\u91cf\u304b\u3089\u7fcc\u65e5\u306e\u9700\u8981\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c<\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(31, \u65e5\u6b21\u8ca9\u58f2\u6570\u91cf30\u65e5\u5206, {1,2,3,&#8230;,30})<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u30ea\u30fc\u30c9\u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u767a\u6ce8\u91cf\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u30ea\u30fc\u30c9\u30bf\u30a4\u30e07\u65e5\u5f8c\u306e\u9700\u8981\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(\u73fe\u5728\u65e5+7, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u65e5\u6b21\u9700\u8981, \u65e5\u4ed8\u756a\u53f7)<\/p>\n<p>\u5b89\u5168\u5728\u5eab\u3092\u52a0\u5473\uff1a=\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024 * 1.2<\/p>\n<h3>\u751f\u7523\u8a08\u753b\u306e\u7b56\u5b9a<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u3067\u306f\u3001\u539f\u6750\u6599\u306e\u8abf\u9054\u3084\u751f\u7523\u80fd\u529b\u306e\u8a08\u753b\u306bFORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u751f\u7523\u91cf\u3068\u539f\u6750\u6599\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304b\u3089\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(\u8a08\u753b\u751f\u7523\u91cf, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u539f\u6750\u6599\u4f7f\u7528\u91cf, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u751f\u7523\u91cf)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8a2d\u5099\u7a3c\u50cd\u7387\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(\u4e88\u5b9a\u53d7\u6ce8\u91cf, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u7a3c\u50cd\u7387\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u53d7\u6ce8\u91cf)<\/p>\n<h3>\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u52b9\u679c\u306e\u6e2c\u5b9a<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u5e83\u544a\u6295\u8cc7\u3068\u58f2\u4e0a\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3001\u6700\u9069\u306a\u5e83\u544a\u4e88\u7b97\u3092\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5e83\u544a\u8cbb\u3068\u58f2\u4e0a\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304b\u3089\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(\u8a08\u753b\u5e83\u544a\u8cbb, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u58f2\u4e0a\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5e83\u544a\u8cbb\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf)<\/p>\n<p><strong>ROI\uff08\u6295\u8cc7\u53ce\u76ca\u7387\uff09\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u58f2\u4e0a = FORECAST(\u5e83\u544a\u8cbb, \u58f2\u4e0a\u5c65\u6b74, \u5e83\u544a\u8cbb\u5c65\u6b74)<\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2cROI = (\u4e88\u6e2c\u58f2\u4e0a &#8211; \u5e83\u544a\u8cbb) \/ \u5e83\u544a\u8cbb<\/p>\n<h3>\u8ca1\u52d9\u4e88\u6e2c\u3068\u8cc7\u91d1\u8a08\u753b<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u30ad\u30e3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc\u4e88\u6e2c\u3084\u8cc7\u91d1\u9700\u8981\u306e\u8a08\u753b\u306b\u3082\u6d3b\u7528\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/biz.moneyforward.com\/accounting\/basic\/44284\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"452\" title=\"\u58f2\u639b\u91d1\">\u58f2\u639b\u91d1<\/a>\u56de\u53ce\u984d\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(\u7fcc\u6708, \u904e\u53bb\u306e\u56de\u53ce\u5b9f\u7e3e, \u6708\u6b21\u756a\u53f7)<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u904b\u8ee2\u8cc7\u91d1\u9700\u8981\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c = FORECAST(\u7fcc\u671f, \u58f2\u4e0a\u63a8\u79fb, \u671f\u9593)<\/p>\n<p>\u5fc5\u8981\u904b\u8ee2\u8cc7\u91d1 = \u58f2\u4e0a\u4e88\u6e2c * \u904b\u8ee2\u8cc7\u91d1\u56de\u8ee2\u7387<\/p>\n<h2>FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u5fdc\u7528\u30fb\u4ed6\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u306e\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b<\/h2>\n<h3>TREND\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u306e\u4f7f\u3044\u5206\u3051<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>TREND\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u8907\u6570\u306e\u5024\u3092\u4e00\u5ea6\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u70b9\u3067FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5358\u4e00\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a=FORECAST(13, y\u7bc4\u56f2, x\u7bc4\u56f2)<\/p>\n<p>\u8907\u6570\u4e88\u6e2c\uff1a=TREND(y\u7bc4\u56f2, x\u7bc4\u56f2, {13,14,15})<\/p>\n<p>TREND\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u8907\u6570\u671f\u9593\u3092\u4e00\u5ea6\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u306e\u8a2d\u5b9a<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u8868\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f95%\u4fe1\u983c\u533a\u9593\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024 = FORECAST(x, y\u7bc4\u56f2, x\u7bc4\u56f2)<\/p>\n<p>\u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee = STEYX(y\u7bc4\u56f2, x\u7bc4\u56f2)<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u9650 = \u4e88\u6e2c\u5024 + 1.96 * \u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u9650 = \u4e88\u6e2c\u5024 &#8211; 1.96 * \u6a19\u6e96\u8aa4\u5dee<\/p>\n<h3>\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\uff08R\u00b2\uff09\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u8a55\u4fa1<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>=RSQ(\u65e2\u77e5\u306ey, \u65e2\u77e5\u306ex)<\/p>\n<p>\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4fc2\u6570\u304c1\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u307b\u3069\u3001\u4e88\u6e2c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u7cbe\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u3001<\/p>\n<div class=\"summary-box\">\n<ul class=\"summary-box__list summary-box__list\">\n<li>0.8\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff1a\u5f37\u3044\u76f8\u95a2\uff08\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u4e88\u6e2c\uff09<\/li>\n<li>0.5-0.8\uff1a\u4e2d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u76f8\u95a2<\/li>\n<li>0.5\u672a\u6e80\uff1a\u5f31\u3044\u76f8\u95a2\uff08\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u304c\u4f4e\u3044\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h3>\u5b63\u7bc0\u8abf\u6574\u3092\u542b\u3080\u4e88\u6e2c<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u5b63\u7bc0\u5909\u52d5\u304c\u3042\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001FORECAST.ETS\u95a2\u6570\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST.ETS(\u76ee\u6a19\u65e5\u4ed8, \u5024, \u30bf\u30a4\u30e0\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3, [\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027], [\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u88dc\u5b8c], [\u96c6\u8a08])<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u95a2\u6570\u306f\u6307\u6570\u5e73\u6ed1\u6cd5\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u3001\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u8907\u6570\u8981\u56e0\u3092\u8003\u616e\u3057\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>LINEST\u95a2\u6570\u3068\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u3001\u91cd\u56de\u5e30\u5206\u6790\u306b\u3088\u308b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u4fc2\u6570 = LINEST(y\u7bc4\u56f2, x1\u7bc4\u56f2:x2\u7bc4\u56f2, TRUE, TRUE)<\/p>\n<p>\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024 = \u5207\u7247 + \u4fc2\u65701*x1 + \u4fc2\u65702*x2<\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u3001\u58f2\u4e0a\u3092\u6c17\u6e29\u3068\u66dc\u65e5\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u304b\u3089\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306b\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u306e\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u5909\u52d5\u3092\u5e73\u6ed1\u5316\u3057\u3066\u304b\u3089\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>3\u304b\u6708\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747 = AVERAGE(\u76f4\u8fd13\u304b\u6708)<\/p>\n<p>\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c = FORECAST(\u6b21\u671f, \u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf, \u671f\u9593)<\/p>\n<h3>\u5916\u308c\u5024\u306e\u51e6\u7406<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u7570\u5e38\u5024\u3092\u9664\u5916\u3057\u3066\u3088\u308a\u5b89\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p>=FORECAST(x, IF(ABS(y-AVERAGE(y))&lt;2*STDEV(y), y), x\u7bc4\u56f2)<\/p>\n<p>\u203b\u3053\u306e\u5f0f\u306f\u914d\u5217\u6570\u5f0f\u3067\u3059\u3002\u53e4\u3044\u30d0\u30fc\u30b8\u30e7\u30f3\u306eExcel\u3067\u306f Ctrl + Shift + Enter \u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u78ba\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u914d\u5217\u6570\u5f0f\u306f\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u304b\u3089\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee\u306e2\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u96e2\u308c\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u9664\u5916\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>FORECAST\u95a2\u6570\u306e\u3088\u304f\u3042\u308b\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u3068\u5bfe\u7b56<\/h2>\n<h3>#N\/A\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306e\u539f\u56e0\u3068\u5bfe\u51e6<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: #ffff99;\"><b>\u6700\u3082\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306f\u3001\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u7bc4\u56f2\u306e\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u539f\u56e01\uff1ax\u7bc4\u56f2\u3068y\u7bc4\u56f2\u306e\u30b5\u30a4\u30ba\u304c\u7570\u306a\u308b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u8aa4\uff1a=FORECAST(13, B2:B13, A2:A14)\u00a0 \/\/ \u7bc4\u56f2\u304c\u4e00\u81f4\u3057\u306a\u3044<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\uff1a=FORECAST(13, B2:B13, A2:A13)\u00a0 \/\/ \u7bc4\u56f2\u3092\u4e00\u81f4\u3055\u305b\u308b<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u539f\u56e02\uff1a\u7a7a\u767d\u30bb\u30eb\u3084\u6587\u5b57\u5217\u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>=IF(COUNT(y\u7bc4\u56f2)=COUNT(x\u7bc4\u56f2), FORECAST(x, y\u7bc4\u56f2, x\u7bc4\u56f2), &#8220;\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d&#8221;)<\/p>\n<h3>#DIV\/0!\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u306e\u5bfe\u51e6<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"background-color: 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